Project: ‘Impact of GenAI on Human development in India’
-Athul C Nambiar
The research question we took up for the project during the workshop was ‘Impact of Generative AI on Human Development in India’. Though we chose human development as a whole, the 3 major sectors we focused on were labour, health and education. As we felt these are the sectors which in some way directly affect the levels of human development in a population. Our main motivation behind this question statement was the doubt which persisted in our mind’s as to will GenAI make it better off or worse for us living beings. As it is a common bandwagon to assume a lot of things when it comes to the effects of AI, and we wanted to achieve a basic level of clarity. What we found is rather interesting, so firstly as we took labour, health and education as parameters to human development we shocked these 3 sectors with 9%, 2.5% and 3.1% respectively. This condition after shock is meant to simulate the situation after the introduction of GenAI all across the world. The astonishing results we got were, in India • Unskilled, service workers saw a rise in employment. • But the skilled workers saw a rise in unemployment by over 0.47%. • GDP rose by ~3% • Emissions reduced by ~1.5% • Health and education sector got cheaper by ~7% and ~9% respectively. • Agricultural products got costlier by ~12%. • Wages of all labour increased by an average of ~1% • Exports greater than imports resulting in a positive trade balance. Whereas in the rest of the world we got to see, • GDP rose by ~26% • All kinds of labour saw an increase in employment levels. • Wages of all labour decreased by an average of ~3% • Health and education got cumulatively cheaper by ~22%. • Agricultural products got costlier by ~36%. Hence comparing ROW&India we came to a conclusion that In India, The health and education sector get’s cheaper by a cumulative percentage of 13.25% and the agricultural prices go up by 12.14%, resulting in an overall market price decline of ~1.1% in India. Keeping in mind that the wages of labours uniformly increase by 1.01% in India the overall final result in human development is positive. In ROW, The health and education sector get’s cheaper by a cumulative percentage of 22.3% and the agricultural prices go up by 36.45%, resulting in an overall market price inflation of ~14% in India. Keeping in mind that the wages of labours uniformly decrease by 3.3% in rest of the world the overall final result in human development is highly negative. After analysing the observations made with the help of GTAP, we foud that, As compared to ROW, India has a net positive Human Development keeping (health, education and labour as the main parameters) with the introduction of Generative AI. References: The economic impact of Generative AI by Mckinsey. Sizing the prize on AI by Pwc.
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